Space Weather Prediction Testbed 2026
Bulk Electric System Exercise
Two 2.5-Day Participation Options - August 18-20 or August 25-27, 2026
The 2026 Space Weather Prediction Testbed Bulk Electric System (BES) Exercise will evaluate prototype decision-support services designed to improve how geomagnetic storm risk is communicated and applied in BES real-time operations. Through an operator-in-the-loop simulation, the exercise will assess whether modernized products provide actionable, user-driven, and risk-based information for preparedness, response, recovery, and all-clear decisions under operational uncertainty. The exercise will also examine how emerging scientific models, probabilistic forecasting techniques, and prototype applications can improve operational decision-making. Participant feedback will directly inform the development of next-generation space weather services that are aligned with real-world operational workflows.
What this is
- A displaced-real-time, operator-in-the-loop exercise simulating an impactful geomagnetic storm affecting the Bulk Electric System (BES) in the U.S. and Canada.
- An evaluation of prototype SWPC decision-support services: revised geomagnetic storm communications and regionalized risk forecasts.
- A test of whether modernized space weather services are understood without explanation and if they improve decision-making under time pressure.
Why it matters for grid operations
- Operators need actionable information that fits real-time workflows for preparedness and response.
- Industry feedback points to limitations in how geomagnetic-storm severity is communicated today, especially for extreme events and regional impacts.
What you get
- A preview of prototype, BES-focused SWPC services, including interactive visualizations intended to support preparation, response, and recovery decisions.
- A direct path to improve the tools you already use: input on timeliness, spatial specificity, product formats, and confidence cues so products integrate with common BES workflows.
- Influence on next-generation services: actionable, user-driven, risk-based decision support rather than index-only reporting.
Who should participate
- U.S. and Canadian Reliability Coordinators, Transmission Operators, Transmission Planners, Balancing Authorities, and GMD program leads.
- Real-time operations leadership and analysts supporting storm response (situational awareness, operational planning, communications).
- Partners with relevant measurements (e.g., geomagnetic field, GIC observations) where data-sharing constraints allow.
- Researchers and developers whose ongoing work aligns with the exercise objectives outlined below.
What we will ask you to do
- Work through a real-time simulation of a geomagnetic disturbance focusing on key decision points using the prototype space weather services.
- Provide feedback on actionability: timing, clarity, and regional specificity.
- Optionally share decision triggers and information needs to improve future services.
- Share perspectives on how forecasting methods and scientific approaches could evolve to better address end-user operational needs and inform future research directions.
When and Where
- Offered in two identical sessions:
- Session 1: August 18–20, 2026
Session 2: August 25–27, 2026
(Each session runs 2.5 days)
- Hosted in person by the Space Weather Prediction Testbed at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, CO
Exercise Objectives
- Storm Onset Timing
Improve communication of geomagnetic storm onset using ensemble forecasting techniques with confidence intervals, including how forecast timing and confidence are updated as the storm approaches to better support user needs. - Probabilistic Intensity Forecasting
Provide probabilistic forecasts of geomagnetic storm intensity. - Regional Hazard and Risk Guidance
Provide regional geoelectric field hazard information and associated operational risk guidance, including the likelihood of exceeding user-driven impact thresholds at spatial scales relevant to user needs. - Unbounded Storm Intensity Scaling
Explore options for moving from bounded Kp scaling to unbounded indices such as Hp for extreme-event characterization. - Storm Duration Forecasting
Forecast storm duration and evolving conditions, including whether impacts are expected from a single event or multiple sequential CME arrivals. - Storm Lifecycle Characterization
Characterize key phases of the geomagnetic storm lifecycle as they relate to Geomagnetic Disturbance (GMD) hazards, including shock arrival, storm main phase, substorm activity. - Storm Termination / All-Clear Guidance
Develop formal all-clear guidance informed by user feedback and operational needs identified during the exercise. - Space Weather Product Integration into BES Tools
Improve integration of space weather forecasts and geoelectric field estimates into BES operational and planning models.
How to get involved
- This exercise is by invitation.
- To express interest, please coordinate through the Space Weather Prediction Testbed Lead Hazel.Bain@noaa.gov
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