Solar Cycle Progression Update (Experimental Interactive Charts on VPC)

Updated solar cycle charts displaying new 2024 prediction for solar-cycle 25. Running in Highcharts

The observed and predicted ​Solar Cycle is depicted in Sunspot Number in the top graph and F10.7cm Radio Flux in the bottom graph.

In both plots, the black line represents the monthly averaged data and the purple line represents a 13-month weighted, smoothed version of the monthly averaged data. The slider bars below each plot provide the ability to display the sunspot data back to solar cycle 1 and F10.7 data back to 2004.

The predicted progression for the current solar cycle (Cycle 25) is given by the magenta line, with associated uncertainties shown by the shaded regions.  This prediction is based on a nonlinear curve fit to the observed monthly values for the sunspot number and F10.7 Radio Flux and is updated every month as more observations become available.  The shaded regions show the uncertainty in the prediction, obtained by applying the same prediction method to previous cycles at the same stage in each cycle.  In particular, the three shades show the first three quartiles (25, 50, and 75%) of the deviations from previous predictions.

This should be interpreted as follows.  There is roughly a 25% chance that the smoothed sunspot number will fall within the darkest shaded region at a particular time in the future.  Similarly, there is a 50% chance the smoothed sunspot number will fall in the medium-shaded region and a 75% chance it will fall in the lightest of the shaded regions.

These plots, like many on the SWPC website, are interactive.

  • Mousing your cursor over the plots will display the data values applicable to the date the cursor is over.
  • Left clicking on the data and holding while you drag will define a zoom window.
  • Use the buttons above each plot to return to the default zoom showing the current cycle or to show the entire available data set.
  • There is also an option to toggle the solar cycle numbering on/off.
  • Beneath each main plot window, the entire time series is shown and you can click/hold on either side of the blue shaded region to expand or contract the zoom window or if you click/hold on the blue shaded region itself, you can slide it to anywhere in the time series.
  • A drop down menu above and to the right of each plot allows you to PRINT, or download PNG, PDF, or SVG format images of the associated plot
  • Another drop down menu in the lower left to allows the user to plot the prediction made for Solar Cycle 25 by an international NOAA/NASA/ISES Panel in 2019, as well as the stated uncertainty in this prediction. 

Note that both the updated prediction and the 2019 NOAA/NASA/ISES Panel prediction apply only to Solar Cycle 25.  Solar Cycle 26 is expected to begin some time between January 2029 and December 2032.  We do not yet produce a prediction for Solar Cycle 26.  

Solar cycle predictions are used by various agencies and many industry groups. The solar cycle is important for determining the lifetime of satellites in low-Earth orbit, as the drag on the satellites correlates with the solar cycle, especially as represented by F10.7cm. A higher solar maximum decreases satellite life and a lower solar maximum extends satellite life. Also, the prediction gives a rough idea of the frequency of space weather storms of all types, from radio blackouts to geomagnetic storms to radiation storms, so is used by many industries to gauge the expected impact of space weather in the coming years.

The solar cycle prediction shown here is based fitting the observed data to a nonlinear function that reflects the average shape of solar cycles and that takes into account the observed tendency for stronger cycles to rise faster than weaker cycles.  Different curves are used to fit the International Sunspot Number and the F10.7 radio flux.    Uncertainties are based on applying the same prediction method to previous Solar Cycles, at the same point in each cycle, and then calculating the difference between the predicted and the observed smoothed monthly values.   For further technical details, please consult the validation document.

The 2019 Panel prediction comes from an international Panel that was convened in 2019 by NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES) for the express purpose of predicting Solar Cycle 25. After an open solicitation, the Panel received nearly 50 distinct forecasts for Solar Cycle 25 from the scientific community. Prediction methods include a variety of physical models, precursor methods, statistical inference, machine learning, and other techniques. The prediction released by the panel is a synthesis of these community contributions.  The Prediction Panel predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.  The updated prediction can be considered as a recalibration of the 2019 Panel prediction based on new observational data.

The original version of the Solar Cycle 25 prediction, released in 2019, only showed the baseline NOAA/NASA/ISES Panel prediction.   In February 2023, the Sunspot Number and F10.7 radio flux plots were modified to show the full range of the 2019 Panel prediction, taking into account expected uncertainties in the cycle start time and amplitude.

In October 2023 the updated prediction for Solar Cycle 25 was made available to the public as an experimental product on the Space Weather Prediction Testbed.  After a period of feedback from SWPC customers and the general public, the updated prediction was made available on this web site in  February 2025, replacing the 2019 Panel prediction.  However, the Panel prediction can still optionally be displayed using the drop down menus.

GOES SUVI Flare Location Product

GOES Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) Automated Flare Location Product

The GOES Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) Flare Location Product reports the latest solar flare location for SUVI’s “flaring” spectral channels (94Å and 131Å) in Heliographic Stonyhurst coordinates.

Do you have feedback about this product? Provide it here.

The GOES Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) is NOAA's operational solar extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) imager. This telescope allows forecasters to monitor the Sun’s hot outer atmosphere, or corona. Observations of solar EUV emission aids in the early detection of solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and other phenomena that impact the geospace environment.

The real time SUVI flare location product reports flare locations for the SUVI “flaring” spectral channels (94Å and 131Å) with a 4 minute cadence. Graphical products show flare locations in the Heliographic Stonyhurst coordinate system for the most recent flare location. The SUVI Flare Location JSON data service also includes the flare location in R-theta, and pixel coordinate systems.

The SUVI Flare Locations are determined from the SUVI Thematic Map and, for each distinct flaring region, the algorithm returns the intensity-weighted centroid that indicates the location of each flare. Locations when the GOES X-ray Sensor (XRS) Event Detection algorithm determines that a solar flare is in progress.

For further details, see the following links: 

NOAA NCEI archive of GOES Products and additional documentation

Example Jupyter Notebooks to Plot SUVI Flare Locations

Journal Article on Thematic Map Approach

Latest Primary JSON

Latest Secondary JSON

US-Canada-1D Geoelectric Field 1-minute (Experimental)

The geoelectric field is a measure of the induction hazard to man-made conductors, such as electrical power lines, that results from geomagnetic activity, and can be used to estimate the amount of current induced by integrating along the conducting pathway

The geoelectric field is a measure of the induction hazard to man-made conductors, such as electrical power lines, that results from geomagnetic activity, and can be used to estimate the amount of current induced by integrating along the conducting pathway. The US-Canada-1D geoelectric field model uses 1D conductivity models over the lower 48 United States and over Canada up to 60 degrees latitude, with output spatial resolution of 1/2 degree in latitude and longitude. The official NWS product notification is available here and contains information on how to provide feedback during the 30 day comment period from April 4 - May 4.

The near real-time US-Canada-1D E-field mapping project is a joint effort between NOAA/SWPC and NRCan/CHIS Space Weather, in collaboration with the USGS geomagnetism group and the NASA/CCMC.

Potentially hazardous geoelectric fields can be induced during geomagnetic storms. These geomagnetic storms are a form of space weather driven by enhanced currents in Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere and are observed at ground level as a time-varying magnetic field. As is well known from Faraday's law, a time-varying magnetic field induces currents along natural and artificial conducting pathways. This geoelectric field product combines information about the time-varying magnetic field together with Earth-conductivity information to estimate regional geoelectric fields. The amount of current induced in an artificial conductor may be calculated by integrating the geoelectric field along the conducting pathway. When currents are induced in artificial conductors, unexpected and sometimes problematic effects can occur in the operation of the affected equipment. Please see the article about the effect this has on electrical power systems at https://www.spaceweather.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission. Please see also the article Modeling geomagnetically induced currents, by Boteler and Pirjola in Space Weather (31 January 2017), for an up-to-date description of this phenomena.

Versions and Caveats:

This version of the US-Canada electric field maps uses 1D physiographic conductivity models with the U.S. portion developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI – 2020) and the Canadian portion described by Trichtchenko et al. (2019). Users please note that there is also a 3D empirical version of the Geoelectric Field Maps (for the continental US only) running at SWPC (deployed to operations in FY2020); The 3D empirical model uses Magnetotelluric Transfer Functions (EMTF's) (see Kelbert et al., 2011 for details), which provide an Earth Conductivity description that incorporates the full 3D effects of Earth conductivity structures. The coverage area of the 3D empirical model is limited to locations where MT surveys have been published. In general we recommend that users located in the 3D empirical model coverage area use that model instead of the 1D model.  The US-Canada-1D map, however, covers a larger area, using available information, and is being released experimentally to facilitate scientific research, validation, and familiarization for the operators.

The local geoelectric field is specified in millivolts per kilometer (mV/km) and is based on convolving a geomagnetic time-series signature with an Earth impulse response function, where the impulse response function depends on the local Earth conductivity (Boteler and Pirjola, 2022). In the US-Canada-1D version, geomagnetic time-series are interpolated onto a 0.5 degree by 0.5 degree grid using the method of Spherical Elementary Current Systems (SECS - see Amm & Viljanen, 1999; Pulkkinen et al. 2003 for more information about the method). The Earth conductivity is determined, based on the physiographic region that the grid point lies in and the associated, one-dimensional conductivity profile.

Users should note specifically that the Geoelectric Field Maps are in need of further validation against geoelectric field or geomagnetically induced current measurements. Recent research (e.g. Bedrosian & Love, 2015; Weigel, 2017; Bonner & Schultz, 2017; Kelbert et al., 2017), and initial comparisons with EMTF-based calculations suggest that in some regions, this approximation for the Earth's structure does not hold and the 1D geoelectric field estimation could be substantially inaccurate. We welcome collaborations from the user community to participate in the ongoing validation analysis that is needed. Retrospective E-field maps are available, or can be generated after the fact for the purposes of testing the geoelectric field models and systems models by comparison with system measurements.  

At this time, we advise caution in the utilization of the Geoelectric Field Maps for operational mitigation of geomagnetic hazards without prior investment in a validation study. We hope, however, that the release of this product will facilitate additional research on geomagnetic hazards and validation activities within the power industry and will help operators have better situational awareness during geomagnetic storms.   

Acknowledgements:

Key data provider agencies are gratefully acknowledged for their contributions:

  • The U.S. magnetic observatories are operated and maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey
  • The Canadian magnetic observatories are operated and maintained by Natural Resources Canada
  • Updated 1D models for the U.S. were provided courtesy of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI Product ID 3002019425, June 08, 2020, Use of  Magnetotelluric Measurement Data to Validate/Improve Existing Earth Conductivity Models)

The maps use a geomagnetic-field time series interpolation algorithm (Spherical Elementary Current Systems) developed and made available courtesy of the Finnish Meteorological Institute (Amm & Viljanen, 1999; Pulkkinen et al., 2003)

References:

Amm, O. & A. Viljanen (1999). Ionospheric disturbance magnetic field continuation from the ground to the ionosphere using spherical elementary current systems, Earth Planets Space, 51, 431-440.

Bedrosian, P.A., A Kelbert, B.L. Burton, J.R. Morris, and C. Blum (2015). Long Period Magnetotelluric Transfer Functions from the Florida Peninsula. doi:10.17611/DP/EMTF/USGS/GEOMAG/FL15

Bedrosian, P. A., & Love, J. J. (2015). Mapping geoelectric fields during magnetic storms: Synthetic analysis of empirical United States impedances. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(23).

Bonner, L. R., & Schultz, A. (2017). Rapid prediction of electric fields associated with geomagnetically induced currents in the presence of three‐dimensional ground structure: Projection of remote magnetic observatory data through magnetotelluric impedance tensors. Space Weather, 15(1), 204-227.

Boteler, D. & R. Pirjola (2017), Modeling geomagnetically induced currents, Space Weather, DOI10.1002/2016SW001499 (31 January 2017).

Boteler, D.H. and Pirjola, R.J. (2022), Electric Field Calculations for Real-Time Space Weather Alerting Systems, Geophys. J. Int., https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac104

Kelbert, A., G.D. Egbert and A. Schultz (2011), IRIS DMC Data Services Products: EMTF, The Magnetotelluric Transfer Functions, https://doi.org/10.17611/DP/EMTF.1 

Kelbert, A., Balch, C. C., Pulkkinen, A., Egbert, G. D., Love, J. J., Rigler, E. J., & Fujii, I. (2017). Methodology for time‐domain estimation of storm‐time geoelectric fields using the 3D magnetotelluric response tensors. Space Weather.

Meqbel, N. M., Egbert, G. D., Wannamaker, P. E., Kelbert, A., & Schultz, A. (2014). Deep electrical resistivity structure of the northwestern US derived from 3-D inversion of USArray magnetotelluric data. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 402, 290-304.

Murphy, B. S., & Egbert, G. D. (2017). Electrical conductivity structure of southeastern North America: Implications for lithospheric architecture and Appalachian topographic rejuvenation. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 462, 66-75.

Pulkkinen, A., O. Amm, A. Viljanen, et al. (2003). Separation of the geomagnetic variation field on the ground into external and internal parts using the spherical elementary current system method, Earth Planets Space, 55, 117-129.

Sun, J., Kelbert, A., & Egbert, G. D. (2015). Ionospheric current source modeling and global geomagnetic induction using ground geomagnetic observatory data. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 120(10), 6771-6796.

Trichtchenko, L., Fernberg, P.A., Boteler, D. (2019). One-dimensional Layered Earth Models of Canada for GIC Applications, Geological Survey of Canada Open Files 8594 & 8595.

Weigel, R. S. (2017). A comparison of methods for estimating the geoelectric field. Space Weather, 15(2), 430-440.

Yang, B., Egbert, G. D., Kelbert, A., & Meqbel, N. M. (2015). Three-dimensional electrical resistivity of the north-central USA from EarthScope long period magnetotelluric data. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 422, 87-93.

Local specification of the Geoelectric Field was identified by users in the electrical power industry as a critical need at SWPC's space weather workshop in 2011. Since then, through collaboration between SWPC, USGS, NASA/CCMC, and NRCAN, efforts have been devoted to meeting this important need. This parameter has also been identified as the key measure by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation in terms of Geomagnetic Disturbance mitigation. In particular, a benchmark Geomagnetic Disturbance Event has been defined and is being refined in terms of Geoelectric Field time series in order for the industry to carry out vulnerability assessments and mitigation measures. The quantity was also highlighted by the National Space Weather Action Plan from the Office of Science and Technology Policy of the President in the initial draft (October 2015) and through later versions of the plan.

Initial experimental release of the 1D Geoelectric Field Maps (graphics) occurred in October 2017 and full deployment to SWPC operational systems occurred on September 17, 2019. Data values are available on request.

The upgrade using EMTF-based conductivities became experimental in June 2020 and went operational in September 2020.

An update to the EMTF-based E-field product was accomplished in March 2022, based on the addition of new surveys published at the IRIS-EMTF web page. The primary change is increased coverage in the southwestern part of the continental United States.

On June 15, 2023, the joint US-Canada 1D model was deployed to operations, replacing the original Fernberg 1D model. In addition the 3D empirical model was updated to incorporate recent survey results from the IRIS database that were publicly available as of December 2022, further increasing the model coverage over CONUS.

Archive

Recent quantitative results for the US-Canada 1D model can be found in geojson format here:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/lists/rgeojson/US-Canada-1D/

Recent quantitative results for the empirical EMTF model in geojson format can be found here:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/lists/rgeojson/InterMagEarthScope/

Recent daily netcdf files for the SECS magnetic field interpolation model can be found here:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/experimental/netcdf/geomagnetic/secsmaps/

Archive maps and data for the US-Canada 1D and the EMTF empirical 3D Geoelectric Field Maps are available by request.

Solar Cycle Progression

Updated solar cycle charts displaying new 2024 prediction for solar-cycle 25. Running in Highcharts

The observed and predicted ​Solar Cycle is depicted in Sunspot Number in the top graph and F10.7cm Radio Flux in the bottom graph.

In both plots, the black line represents the monthly averaged data and the purple line represents a 13-month weighted, smoothed version of the monthly averaged data. The slider bars below each plot provide the ability to display the sunspot data back to solar cycle 1 and F10.7 data back to 2004.

The predicted progression for the current solar cycle (Cycle 25) is given by the magenta line, with associated uncertainties shown by the shaded regions.  This prediction is based on a nonlinear curve fit to the observed monthly values for the sunspot number and F10.7 Radio Flux and is updated every month as more observations become available.  The shaded regions show the uncertainty in the prediction, obtained by applying the same prediction method to previous cycles at the same stage in each cycle.  In particular, the three shades show the first three quartiles (25, 50, and 75%) of the deviations from previous predictions.

This should be interpreted as follows.  There is roughly a 25% chance that the smoothed sunspot number will fall within the darkest shaded region at a particular time in the future.  Similarly, there is a 50% chance the smoothed sunspot number will fall in the medium-shaded region and a 75% chance it will fall in the lightest of the shaded regions.

These plots, like many on the SWPC website, are interactive.

  • Mousing your cursor over the plots will display the data values applicable to the date the cursor is over.
  • Left clicking on the data and holding while you drag will define a zoom window.
  • Use the buttons above each plot to return to the default zoom showing the current cycle or to show the entire available data set.
  • There is also an option to toggle the solar cycle numbering on/off.
  • Beneath each main plot window, the entire time series is shown and you can click/hold on either side of the blue shaded region to expand or contract the zoom window or if you click/hold on the blue shaded region itself, you can slide it to anywhere in the time series.
  • A drop down menu above and to the right of each plot allows you to PRINT, or download PNG, PDF, or SVG format images of the associated plot
  • Another drop down menu in the lower left to allows the user to plot the prediction made for Solar Cycle 25 by an international NOAA/NASA/ISES Panel in 2019, as well as the stated uncertainty in this prediction. 

Note that both the updated prediction and the 2019 NOAA/NASA/ISES Panel prediction apply only to Solar Cycle 25.  Solar Cycle 26 is expected to begin some time between January 2029 and December 2032.  We do not yet produce a prediction for Solar Cycle 26.  

Solar cycle predictions are used by various agencies and many industry groups. The solar cycle is important for determining the lifetime of satellites in low-Earth orbit, as the drag on the satellites correlates with the solar cycle, especially as represented by F10.7cm. A higher solar maximum decreases satellite life and a lower solar maximum extends satellite life. Also, the prediction gives a rough idea of the frequency of space weather storms of all types, from radio blackouts to geomagnetic storms to radiation storms, so is used by many industries to gauge the expected impact of space weather in the coming years.

The solar cycle prediction shown here is based fitting the observed data to a nonlinear function that reflects the average shape of solar cycles and that takes into account the observed tendency for stronger cycles to rise faster than weaker cycles.  Different curves are used to fit the International Sunspot Number and the F10.7 radio flux.    Uncertainties are based on applying the same prediction method to previous Solar Cycles, at the same point in each cycle, and then calculating the difference between the predicted and the observed smoothed monthly values.   For further technical details, please consult the validation document.

The 2019 Panel prediction comes from an international Panel that was convened in 2019 by NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES) for the express purpose of predicting Solar Cycle 25. After an open solicitation, the Panel received nearly 50 distinct forecasts for Solar Cycle 25 from the scientific community. Prediction methods include a variety of physical models, precursor methods, statistical inference, machine learning, and other techniques. The prediction released by the panel is a synthesis of these community contributions.  The Prediction Panel predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.  The updated prediction can be considered as a recalibration of the 2019 Panel prediction based on new observational data.

The original version of the Solar Cycle 25 prediction, released in 2019, only showed the baseline NOAA/NASA/ISES Panel prediction.   In February 2023, the Sunspot Number and F10.7 radio flux plots were modified to show the full range of the 2019 Panel prediction, taking into account expected uncertainties in the cycle start time and amplitude.

In October 2023 the updated prediction for Solar Cycle 25 was made available to the public as an experimental product on the Space Weather Prediction Testbed.  After a period of feedback from SWPC customers and the general public, the updated prediction was made available on this web site in  February 2025, replacing the 2019 Panel prediction.  However, the Panel prediction can still optionally be displayed using the drop down menus.

ICAO Space Weather Advisories Experimental Information

The ICAO Space Weather Advisories interface provides public access to advisories that may not otherwise be available to those outside of the aviation industry

The ICAO Space Weather Advisories interface provides public access to advisories that may not otherwise be available to those outside of the aviation industry.

Provided is a list of advisories issued over the last 24-hours.  Active advisories are always listed first.  Selecting advisories from the table will toggle on/off the advisories’ areas of effect depicted on a global map.  The last selected advisory’s text is depicted in the text viewer.  The text may be copied to one’s clipboard.  Graphic depictions of advisories may be saved as a scalable vector graphic (SVG) files.

Advisory cancelations and advisories that apply to the daylight side of the globe are not graphically depicted on the map.

From an operations perspective, space weather events occur when the Sun causes disruptions to aviation communications, navigation and surveillance systems, and elevates radiation dose levels at flight altitudes. Space weather events may occur on short time scales, with the effects occurring from almost instantaneously to over a few days.

From a broader perspective, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defines space weather to be “The physical and phenomenological state of the natural space environment, including the Sun and the interplanetary and planetary environments.” This more comprehensive definition cuts a broader band across the system to include the slowly varying galactic cosmic rays (GCR) coming from outside the heliosphere, as well as the repetitive high-speed solar wind streams from voids in the solar corona. In summary, not all space weather stems from eruptions but also from variations in the flow of charged particles, photons, and magnetic field.

Space weather forecasts for international air navigation address particular types of disturbances, i.e. solar radiation, geomagnetic and ionospheric storms, and solar flares. In addition, predictions of the slowly varying elements (i.e. GCR and high-speed stream-induced geomagnetic storms) are also produced. These forecasts enable operators the opportunity to be situationally aware and to formulate alternative plans should the impending conditions be of a magnitude and a type that could disrupt normal operations.

Source: (2019). Doc 10100, Manual on Space Weather Information in Support of International Air Navigation (1st ed., p. 1). International Civil Aviation Organization.

Designated space weather centers started transmitting space weather advisories in December 2019.


 

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/json/icao-space-weather-advisories.json

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